Which racing style produces the most Thoroughbred winners at Los Alamitos Race Course? We took a look at a modest sample of races – 94 races at 4 ½ furlongs since December 1, 2012 – and the result was unexpected. Granted, this sample includes a large amount of races that were contested under cool weather conditions and over tracks labeled as wet fast or good by the racing stewards due to the winter season. As the evenings figure to remain cool over the next few weeks, these findings could be helpful in handicapping the Los Alamitos races. Here’s what our research found: Of the 94 Thoroughbred races since December 1, 2012, a total of 24 winners led wire to wire; 23 winners took the lead by the quarter-mile pole; 3 winners had taken the lead entering the final stretch; and 44 runners came off the pace to take the lead either in mid-stretch or in the final strides before the wire. Here’s how these numbers look percentage wise:
TOTAL RACES 94 (from December 1, 2012 through February 1, 2013)
Location where horse took the lead Winners Percentage of total winners
Start 24 25.5%
¼ Mile Post 23 24.5%
Stretch 3 3.2%
Mid-Stretch to Wire 44 46.8%
When handicapping races at Los Alamitos, this observer usually looks for horses with a lot of early speed because of the 4 ½ furlong distance of the races. The numbers reflect that over the past two months, horses are winning 50% of the races from off the pace perhaps because of the cooler weather. We’ll soon analyze the Thoroughbred races in the summer of 2012 to see if during that time there were more wire-to-wire winners or more horses winning after taking the lead shortly after the start.
Are top jockeys like Ramon Guce or Cheryl Charlton winning more races with a specific riding style since December 1? As far as those two leading riders are concerned, Guce’s numbers did not reflect a major swing either way, but Cheryl definitely did her winning with horses taken the lead early on. Of Guce’s 24 wins since December 1, 14 victories came when his mount took the lead in the first 2 furlongs of a race. He won 10 races when his mount took the lead at some point during the final 2 ½ furlongs of the race. As for defending Thoroughbred leading rider Charlton is concerned, of her eight wins during that span, seven of them came when she had the lead by the ¼ mile post. Thoroughbred jockey Gerardo Gavica is enjoying success with a specific riding style over the past two months. Eight of Gavica’s 12 wins during that span have come from off the pace and only three of those wins have been in wire to wire fashion. Newcomer Vinnie Bednar’s victories have come in a similar style, as six of his eight wins have come in the final furlong of the race. Only one of his local wins came in wire to wire fashion.
Since February 1, the trainer with the most wire to wire victories is Keith Craigmyle with four wins, while Vod Farris won three races with his horse going from start to finish. Charles Treece also had three wire to wire wins. with three, while the trainer with the most wins in the final furlong is Keith Craigmyle with four victories. As for trainers with the most wins coming from off the pace, Jim Hanson enjoyed six wins in the final furlong since December 1. We’ll take a look at the Thoroughbred races contested in the spring and summer months of 2012 in the weeks to come.
RACE BY RACE THOROUGHBRED INFO - DEC. 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1, 2013
Date Race Horse Name Lead Point Win Length Jockey Trainer 01/04/13 5 Our Crimson Tide ¼ Mile 1 ¼ E Gomez David Showalter 01/20/13 7 Flashy Player ¼ Mile 1 ½ R Guce Angela Maria Aquino 01/13/13 7 Mr Sambuca ¼ Mile 1 ½ R Guce Charles Treece 01/18/13 1 Lucky and Tough ¼ Mile 2 ¾ R Guce Charles Treece 12/01/12 1 Qeight Diesel ¼ Mile ¾ R Guce Charles Treece 12/14/12 5 Lucky Oly ¼ Mile 1 ¾ C Charlton Christopher O'Dell 12/29/12 7 Cuvees Choice ¼ Mile ¾ G P Gavica David Stubblefield 12/09/12 1 C'Mon Marquis ¼ Mile NK D Navarro James Hanson 01/06/13 2 Front Page Dancer ¼ Mile 4 ¼ R Guce James Hanson 12/09/12 3 Decarchy Fever ¼ Mile ½ R Guce James Hanson 12/09/12 7 Sipnzin ¼ Mile 1 ¼ D D Williams Jesus Enriquez 01/12/13 1 A Big Sweet Tooth ¼ Mile 3 ½ L Medina Jose Antonia Moreno 01/13/13 5 Saxman ¼ Mile 2 ¾ R Guce Jose Jesus Avalos 12/15/12 7 Brother Ernie ¼ Mile 1 ¾ C Charlton Justin Clark 01/05/13 5 Last Chance Bobby ¼ Mile 3 ¾ C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 12/02/12 1 Silencio Gato ¼ Mile 7 C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 12/08/12 1 Tuscan Queen ¼ Mile 1 ½ DH D D Williams Lin Melton 12/30/12 7 Fast Tracking ¼ Mile 1 ¾ J V Cruz Mark Skeen 12/16/12 3 Truco Latino ¼ Mile HD V Bednar Rafael DeLeon 12/07/12 3 Iamtheganster ¼ Mile 4 E Hemandez Silverio Martinez 01/27/13 1 Goodlookindude ¼ Mile 3 ½ L Medina Silverio Martinez 01/27/13 3 Molokini ¼ Mile 2 ¼ L Medina Vod Farris 12/22/12 5 Just Let Me Finish ¼ Mile 1 ¾ D Navarro William Cox 01/04/13 1 Tropical Winds Finish 2 G P Gavica Andrew Harris 01/19/13 5 Freedom General Finish HD G P Gavica Antonio Soto 12/01/12 5 Haros Jackpot Finish ¾ G P Gavica Antonio Soto 12/15/12 5 Tiz Heat Finish ½ J M Scott Barry Abrams 01/19/13 2 Defensive Move Finish 1 ¼ A Jimenez Bruce Towell 02/01/13 5 Defensive Move Finish NK A Jimenez Bruce Towell 01/11/13 1 Sally's Blade Finish HD V Bednar Charles Bloomquist 12/08/12 7 Heavenly Being Finish 6 ½ C Charlton Charles Treece 01/13/13 3 Looking Out Finish NK R Guce Charles Treece 01/18/13 5 Haros Jackpot Finish ½ R Guce Charles Treece 12/21/12 7 Hostile Reaction Finish 2 ¼ R Guce Charles Treece 01/13/13 1 Dixie Ann Finish NK D Torres Curtis Harvey 01/18/13 3 Adonis D N A Finish 1 ¼ L R Gonzalez Francisco Vallejo 02/01/13 7 Playful Student Finish NK G P Gavica Frank Martin 01/20/13 1 Wild Hickory Finish ½ J M Scott Guillermo Morales 01/11/13 7 Sherman Bartlebort Finish 2 J Rosales Humberto Loma 12/08/12 3 Friendly Hays Finish 1 ½ D Navarro James Hanson 01/05/13 7 Summer Arrow Finish NS R Guce James Hanson 01/06/13 5 Rodeotime Finish 2 ¾ R Guce James Hanson 02/01/13 1 Wylie N Wyatt Finish ¾ R Guce James Hanson 12/28/12 5 Minister Machine Finish ½ R Guce James Hanson 01/05/13 1 Solana Soleil Finish 1 ¾ V Bednar James Hanson 01/11/13 5 Full On Finish ½ V Bednar Javier Jose Sierra 01/18/13 2 Annie's Journey Finish ¾ J M Scott Jerry Wallace 12/16/12 5 Single Shot Finish ½ D D Williams Jesus Enriquez 12/22/12 1 Joshuas Bride Finish ½ J V Cruz Jesus Enriquez 01/06/13 8 Poppy Peak Finish 2 ¼ V Bednar Jesus Enriquez 12/28/12 4 Sassy Britches Finish ½ R Guce John Martin 01/26/13 2 El Valentin Finish NK G P Gavica Jose Antonia Moreno 12/08/12 1 Pic O Dream Finish 1 ½ DH G P Gavica Jose De La Torre 01/06/13 6 Markyg Finish NK J Rosales Jose De La Torre 01/19/13 3 Morning Frost Finish ½ G P Gavica Justin Clark 01/12/13 5 Limerick Lane Finish 3 ¼ V Bednar Justin Clark 01/04/13 3 At Last a Wildcat Finish NK J M Scott Leonard Espinoza 01/25/13 1 Deer Creek Finish 1 J M Scott Leonard Espinoza 12/01/12 3 Fast Tracking Finish 1 ¼ J V Cruz Mark Skeen 01/19/13 1 Fast Tracking Finish 2 ½ R Guce Paul Jones 12/23/12 1 Gannicus Finish ½ V Bednar Robert Bean 01/25/13 4 Backwoods Belle Finish 2 ¼ D Torres Steven Miyadi 12/23/12 3 Argyll Lad Finish 2 ¼ E Gomez Thomas Bazley 01/25/13 5 To the Top Finish NK D Torres Vod Farris 12/07/12 1 Wild Hickory Finish 1 ¼ D Navarro Yanet Rodriguez 01/05/13 3 A Racing Delight Finish ½ G P Gavica Yanet Rodriguez 12/28/12 1 Wild Hickory Finish 2 ¼ J M Scott Yanet Rodriguez 01/19/13 7 Search Overload Start 1 ¾ G P Gavica Antonio Soto 01/26/13 1 Big Swiss Start ½ G P Gavica Antonio Soto 01/12/13 7 Decarchy Fever Start ½ R Guce Charles Treece 12/23/12 5 Hargill Start 2 ½ R Guce Charles Treece 12/14/12 3 Ambassy Start 2 ¼ R Guce Charles Treece 12/21/12 5 Easy City Start 3 ¾ R Guce Genaro Vallejo 12/14/12 1 Tiz a Brite Miss Start 1 ¼ E Gomez James Glenn 12/28/12 2 Loveitorlooseit Start NK R Guce James Hanson 12/29/12 1 Alphonso Start 4 ¼ R Guce Jerry Wallace 12/15/12 1 Poppy Peak Start 7 D D Williams Jesus Enriquez 02/01/13 2 Best Girl Ever Start 1 ½ V Bednar Jesus Enriquez 01/25/13 2 Top Torero Start 1 ½ C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 12/21/12 7 Really a Dutchess Start 3 C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 12/30/12 2 Brother Ernie Start 1 ½ C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 12/30/12 5 Catzdailydictation Start 3 C Charlton Keith Craigmyle 01/20/13 3 Captain Shawn D Start NS L Medina Kelly Castaneda 12/29/12 5 Tuscan Queen Start HD D Torres Lin Melton 12/21/12 1 Ghostly Fever Start ½ L R Gonzalez Robert Lucas 12/16/12 1 Ale's Emerald Start 5 ¾ R Guce Sal Gonzalez 12/15/12 3 Georgia's Friend Start 3 E Hemandez Silverio Martinez 12/07/12 5 Detective Poirot Start 1 ½ G Martin Silverio Martinez 12/22/12 3 Agility Start 1 ¼ C Charlton Vod Farris 01/04/13 7 To the Top Start NK D Torres Vod Farris 12/08/12 5 Agility Start 4 ¾ G P Gavica Vod Farris 01/20/13 5 Friendly Hays Stretch ½ R Guce Charles Treece 12/16/12 2 Savy Secret Stretch ¾ D D Williams James Hanson 12/09/12 5 Epic Rule Stretch ¾ E Gomez Jose Jesus Avalos
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